特朗普大消息！贸易战将重大升级:特朗普宣布将采取影响“所有人”的关税措施

“西方客户感到震惊”！美媒:这是中国国家主席习近平向特朗普发出的警告

非农数据让市场“傻眼”！黄金剧烈波动、短线跌幅一度近20美元 美联储降息路径或改变?

事关马斯克、俄乌冲突！特朗普突传2个市场重大行动……

详解非农：美国1月就业增长放缓，修订数据显示去年劳动力市场不及预期强劲

The Baltic Exchange's dry bulk sea freight index, which tracks rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, recorded its sixth consecutive session of increases on Friday, rising 22 points to an over two-week high of 815 points. The capesize index, reflecting rates for large vessels transporting cargoes like iron ore and coal, advanced 28 points to 840 points; and the panamax index, typically associated with ships carrying 60,000-70,000 tons of coal or grain, increased 6 points to a near one-month high of 1,035 points. Among smaller vessels, the supramax index added 28 points at 677 points. The benchmark index rose more than 7% for the week, registering its first weekly gain in five.

波罗的海交易所干散货海运指数（追踪运输干散货商品的船舶运费）周五连续第六个交易日上涨，上涨 22 点，达到两周多以来的最高点 815 点。海岬型船运价指数（反映运输铁矿石和煤炭等货物的大型船舶的运费）上涨 28 点，达到 840 点；巴拿马型船运价指数（通常与运载 60,000-70,000 吨煤炭或谷物的船舶相关）上涨 6 点，达到近一个月以来的最高点 1,035 点。在小型船舶中，超灵便型船运价指数上涨 28 点，达到 677 点。基准指数本周上涨逾 7%，五年以来首次周度上涨。

The S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.45% to close at 12,902 on Friday, paring its recent losses but still posted its third consecutive weekly decline. The index, which was closed the previous day, fluctuated between small gains and losses in the morning before gaining momentum in the afternoon and ending at a session high. Among large-cap stocks, medical-device maker Fisher & Paykel advanced 1.6%, though it finished the week 6.5% lower amid worries over the impact of global tariffs. Utility provider Meridian Energy and infrastructure investor Infratil gained 1.1% and 2.4%, respectively. Other notable performers included Port of Tauranga (1.6%) and Fletcher Building (3.15%). On the downside, Manawa Energy was the biggest laggard, shedding 8.4% due to takeover concerns. Despite Friday’s rebound, the index fell 0.7% for the week. Meanwhile, investors now await the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report due later today, which could offer more clues about the Federal Reserve's interest rate path.

周五，S&P/NZX 50 指数上涨 0.45%，收于 12,902 点，缩减近期跌幅，但仍录得连续第三周下跌。该指数前一天收盘，上午小幅上涨和下跌，下午上涨并收于盘中高点。在大盘股中，医疗设备制造商 Fisher & Paykel 上涨 1.6%，但由于对全球关税影响的担忧，该股本周收盘下跌 6.5%。公用事业提供商 Meridian Energy 和基础设施投资者 Infratil 分别上涨 1.1% 和 2.4%。其他表现突出的股票包括陶朗加港 (1.6%) 和 Fletcher Building (3.15%)。下跌方面，Manawa Energy 是最大的落后者，因收购担忧下跌 8.4%。尽管周五有所反弹，但该指数本周下跌了 0.7%。与此同时，投资者目前正在等待今天晚些时候发布的美国非农就业报告，该报告可能为美联储的利率走势提供更多线索。

纽元/美元价格分析：货币对回落但稳固保持在20日SMA上方

Oil prices fluctuated, with WTI crude trading above $70.5 per barrel after President Trump reiterated his commitment to lowering crude prices. Speaking at the National Prayer Breakfast, Trump announced that Interior Secretary Doug Burgum and Energy Secretary Chris Wright would work to boost US oil production, promising an unprecedented surge in output to drive prices down. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia's state oil company sharply raised March crude prices due to rising demand from China and India and disruptions to Russian supply caused by US sanctions. On the trade front, tensions between the US and China continued, with Beijing imposing tariffs on American oil, LNG, and coal in response to Trump’s recent trade measures. However, given China’s relatively small imports of US energy products, the impact of these tariffs is expected to be limited.

油价波动，在特朗普总统重申降低原油价格的承诺后，WTI 原油交易价超过每桶 70.5 美元。特朗普在全国祈祷早餐会上宣布，内政部长道格·伯格姆和能源部长克里斯·赖特将努力提高美国石油产量，并承诺将以前所未有的产量激增来压低油价。与此同时，由于中国和印度的需求不断增长，以及美国制裁导致俄罗斯供应中断，沙特阿拉伯国有石油公司大幅上调了 3 月份原油价格。在贸易方面，中美之间的紧张局势持续，北京对美国石油、液化天然气和煤炭征收关税，以回应特朗普最近的贸易措施。然而，鉴于中国从美国能源产品进口量相对较少，预计这些关税的影响将有限。

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq rose by approximately 0.2% on Thursday, while the Dow Jones pared early gains and dropped around 90 points as traders focused on corporate earnings and assessed President Trump's policies. Eli Lilly was up about 2.5% after an earnings beat and Philip Morris soared almost 12% on strong revenue figures. In contrast, Qualcomm lost 4.4% amid concerns of a slowdown in demand for smartphone devices. Honeywell shares dropped 4.5% after the company announced plans to split into three independent companies. Ford plunged 4.8% as the automaker forecasts weaker growth. Tesla was down nearly 1.8%. Amazon is also due to report quarterly results today after the closing bell. Meanwhile, initial claims came slightly above forecasts but remained close to levels seen in the past months while labour costs and productivity rose less than anticipated. The highly-anticipated jobs report is due tomorrow.

周四，标准普尔 500 指数和纳斯达克指数上涨约 0.2%，而道琼斯指数回吐早盘涨幅并下跌约 90 点，因为交易员关注企业收益并评估特朗普总统的政策。礼来公司在收益超出预期后上涨约 2.5%，菲利普莫里斯公司在强劲的收入数据下飙升近 12%。相比之下，由于对智能手机设备需求放缓的担忧，高通下跌 4.4%。霍尼韦尔宣布计划分拆为三家独立公司后，股价下跌 4.5%。福特汽车公司预测增长放缓，股价暴跌 4.8%。特斯拉下跌近 1.8%。亚马逊也将于今天收盘后公布季度业绩。与此同时，初请失业金人数略高于预期，但仍接近过去几个月的水平，而劳动力成本和生产率的增长低于预期。备受期待的就业报告将于明天公布。

Malaysian palm oil futures extended their bullish momentum to MYR 4,400 per tonne in February, the highest in three weeks, as the impact of new growing regulations in top producer Indonesia and trade restrictions from China offset pressure from lower prices for rival vegetable oils. The Indonesian government tightened regulations on palm cultivation permits to aid local smallholder growers, but risking lower output from major manufacturers. In the meantime, the threat of retaliatory tariffs from China on US energy goods, mainly LNG, raised the demand outlook for biodiesel alternatives and supported palm oil benchmarks. On the other hand, lower costs for soy oil drove major consumer India to allocate feedstock inventories for palm oil alternatives, driving imports to plunge by 46% from the previous month to a 14-year low of 272,000 tonnes in January.

2 月份，马来西亚棕榈油期货延续看涨势头，至每吨 4,400 马来西亚林吉特，创三周以来最高水平，因为主要生产国印度尼西亚出台的新种植法规和中国的贸易限制抵消了竞争对手植物油价格下跌带来的压力。印度尼西亚政府收紧了棕榈种植许可证监管，以帮助当地小农户，但这可能会导致主要制造商的产量下降。与此同时，中国威胁对美国能源产品（主要是液化天然气）征收报复性关税，这提高了生物柴油替代品的需求前景，并支撑了棕榈油基准。另一方面，大豆油成本下降促使主要消费国印度将原料库存分配给棕榈油替代品，导致 1 月份进口量较上月暴跌 46%，至 14 年来的最低水平 272,000 吨。

The Hang Seng soared 573 points or 2.8% to close at its highest in nearly two months of 20,790 on Tuesday, as traders shrugged off news of reciprocal tariffs between China and the US. As Washington's new tariffs took effect, Beijing moved with levies of 15% on US coal and LNG and 10% on crude oil, farm equipment, and certain autos, set to begin on Feb. 10, China’s finance ministry said. In addition, Chinese regulators launched a probe into Google over alleged anti-monopoly practices. Sentiment was further lifted by the resumption of mainland trading Wednesday after a week-long Lunar break. The Hong Kong tech index jumped by 5% as investors poured into AI stocks after startup DeepSeek unveiled a cost-effective large language model. The EV sector also rallied, with XPeng soaring 12.3% after reporting an almost threefold rise in January smart EV deliveries. Geely Auto climbed 7.7%, while Semicon Manufacturing surged 8.5%. Meituan and Xiaomi Corp. also surged 6.0% and 4.2%, respectively.

恒生指数周二飙升 573 点或 2.8%，收于近两个月来最高点 20,790 点，因交易员对中美互惠关税的消息不以为然。中国财政部表示，随着华盛顿新关税生效，北京方面也采取行动，从 2 月 10 日起对美国煤炭和液化天然气征收 15% 的税，对原油、农用设备和某些汽车征收 10% 的税。此外，中国监管机构对谷歌涉嫌反垄断行为展开调查。在为期一周的农历假期后，内地股市周三恢复交易，进一步提振了市场人气。在初创公司 DeepSeek 推出具有成本效益的大型语言模型后，投资者纷纷涌入人工智能股，香港科技指数上涨 5%。电动汽车板块也出现上涨，小鹏汽车飙升 12.3%，此前该公司公布 1 月份智能电动汽车交付量增长近两倍。吉利汽车上涨7.7%，半导体制造上涨8.5%，美团和小米也分别上涨6.0%和4.2%。

欧元/美元价格分析：货币对在大幅下跌后削减损失，仍低于20日SMA

The BSE Sensex closed about 0.4% down at 77,187 on Monday, as global markets reacted to U.S. President Donald Trump’s fresh tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, reigniting fears of a global trade war. Additionally, the Budget 2025-26 announced on February 1 featured a smaller-than-expected increase in capital expenditure and a reduction in personal income tax rates aimed at boosting domestic consumption. Major laggards included Larsen & Toubro, Tata Motors, Hindustan Unilever, Asian Paints, ITC, Power Grid, NTPC, and Reliance Industries. On the other hand, Bajaj Finance surged over 5%, while Mahindra & Mahindra, Bajaj Finserv, Bharti Airtel, and Maruti also posted gains. Another significant factor contributing to the market decline was the falling rupee, which hit an all-time low as foreign investors continued to offload their holdings.

周一，孟买证券交易所 Sensex 指数收盘下跌约 0.4%，至 77,187 点，全球市场对美国总统唐纳德·特朗普对加拿大、墨西哥和中国征收新关税作出反应，重新引发全球贸易战的担忧。此外，2 月 1 日公布的 2025-26 年预算案显示，资本支出增幅低于预期，并下调个人所得税税率，旨在刺激国内消费。主要落后者包括 Larsen & Toubro、塔塔汽车、印度斯坦联合利华、亚洲涂料、ITC、Power Grid、NTPC 和信实工业。另一方面，巴贾吉金融飙升超过 5%，而马恒达、巴贾吉金融、巴帝电信和马鲁蒂也出现上涨。导致市场下跌的另一个重要因素是卢比贬值，随着外国投资者继续抛售其持有的股票，卢比跌至历史最低点。

纽元/美元价格分析：货币对在接近20日SMA时走弱

The BSE Sensex closed about 0.3% up at 76,760 on a choppy session on Thursday, hitting its highest level in over a week and advancing for the third successive day. Traders reviewed the latest FOMC minutes, which struck a cautious tone, while attention now turns to the upcoming Union Budget 2025 in early February. Market participants also continued to monitor the release of earnings results. On the business front, gains in financials and oil & gas stocks were partially offset by losses in IT and auto sectors. Also, state-owned companies stood out as top performers, fueled by expectations of increased government focus on public spending and infrastructure in Saturday's budget announcement. Non-bank lender Bajaj Finance rose 2.1% after posting a bigger quarterly profit. Conversely, Tata Motors plunged over 7% after reporting a smaller quarterly profit due to weak car sales; and Adani Enterprises shed about 3% after revealing its biggest quarterly profit slump in three years.

周四，孟买证券交易所 SENSEX 指数在震荡交易中收盘上涨约 0.3%，至 76,760 点，创下一周多以来的最高水平，并连续第三天上涨。交易员们回顾了最新的 FOMC 会议纪要，该纪要基调谨慎，而注意力现在转向即将于 2 月初出台的 2025 年联邦预算。市场参与者也继续关注企业盈利结果的公布。在商业方面，金融和石油和天然气股的涨幅被 IT 和汽车股的下跌部分抵消。此外，由于预期政府在周六的预算公告中将更加关注公共支出和基础设施，国有企业表现优异。非银行贷款机构 Bajaj Finance 公布季度利润增加，股价上涨 2.1%。相反，塔塔汽车因汽车销售疲软公布季度利润减少，股价暴跌逾 7%；阿达尼企业公布三年来最大季度利润跌幅，股价下跌约 3%。

白银价格预测：白银/美元希望在100日SMA/31.00美元之上建立动能

欧元/美元价格分析：货币对在看涨动能减弱的情况下下跌，但仍高于20日SMA

The Baltic Exchange's dry bulk sea freight index, which tracks rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, was down for a ninth successive day on Friday, falling about 46 points to a new low since February 2023 at 778 points, amid lower seasonal demand. The capesize index, reflecting rates for large vessels transporting cargoes like iron ore and coal, slumped 98 points to its lowest level since March 2023 at 983 points; and the panamax index, typically associated with ships carrying 60,000-70,000 tons of coal or grain, declined 30 points to its lowest since May 2020 at 774 points. Among smaller vessels, the supramax index eased for the 15 straight day, shedding about 15 points to a fresh low since February 2023 at 639 points. The benchmark index recorded the third week of losses, plunging over 21%.

波罗的海交易所干散货海运指数（追踪运输干散货商品的船舶运费）周五连续第九天下跌，下跌约 46 点，至 778 点，创 2023 年 2 月以来新低。反映运输铁矿石和煤炭等货物的大型船舶运费的海岬型船运价指数下跌 98 点，至 983 点，创 2023 年 3 月以来的最低水平；巴拿马型船运价指数通常与运载 60,000-70,000 吨煤炭或谷物的船舶相关，下跌 30 点，至 774 点，创 2020 年 5 月以来的最低水平。在小型船舶中，超灵便型船运价指数连续 15 天下跌，下跌约 15 点，至 639 点，创 2023 年 2 月以来新低。基准指数连续第三周下跌，暴跌超过 21%。

欧元/英镑价格预测：回落至0.8450以下，接近200日SMA

The FTSE MIB surged more than 1% to around 36,474, reaching its highest level since January 2008, tracking a surge in luxury stocks among regional peers. This followed Burberry's smaller-than-expected 4% decline in Q3 like-for-like retail sales, along with US President Donald Trump's remarks at the World Economic Forum in Davos, which appeared to downplay the threat of US tariffs on Chinese imports. Among luxury stocks, Moncler led the gains, soaring over 5%, while Brunello Cucinelli jumped more than 2%. Other notable gains were seen from Unicredit (+2%), Assicurazioni Generali (+1.5%), Stellantis NV (+3.6%), Mediobanca (+4.9%), and Banco BPM SPA (+2.4%).

意大利富时MIB指数飙升逾1%至36,474点左右，达到自2008年1月以来的最高水平，追随该地区其他奢侈品股的飙升。此前，Burberry第三季度同店零售额同比下降4%，降幅小于预期，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在达沃斯世界经济论坛上发表讲话，似乎淡化了美国对中国进口产品征收关税的威胁。在奢侈品股中，Moncler领涨，飙升逾5%，而Brunello Cucinelli上涨逾2%。其他显著上涨的股票包括Unicredit（+2%）、Assicurazioni Generali（+1.5%）、Stellantis NV（+3.6%）、Mediobanca（+4.9%）和Banco BPM SPA（+2.4%）。

欧元/英镑价格分析：货币对走弱，接近关键的200日SMA

US natural gas futures fell to around $3.9/MMBtu following another significant storage draw, though smaller than anticipated. The latest EIA report showed that US utilities withdrew 223 billion cubic feet (bcf) of natural gas in the week ending January 17, bringing total stockpiles to 2,892 bcf. This fell short of market expectations for a 244 bcf decrease. Analysts predict further withdrawals exceeding 200 bcf for the week ending January 24, driven by heightened heating demand, which could eliminate the small surplus in inventories compared to the five-year average. However, demand is expected to ease as milder weather is forecast from late January into early February. In addition, natural gas flows to Freeport LNG's export plant were set to rise from an 11-week low, after a power problem during a winter storm forced it to shut on Tuesday.

美国天然气期货跌至约 3.9 美元/百万英热单位，此前又一次大幅削减库存，但幅度小于预期。最新的 EIA 报告显示，美国公用事业公司在截至 1 月 17 日的一周内提取了 2230 亿立方英尺的天然气，使总库存达到 2,8920 亿立方英尺。这低于市场预期的 2440 亿立方英尺的降幅。分析师预测，受供暖需求增加的推动，截至 1 月 24 日的一周内，提取量将超过 2000 亿立方英尺，这可能会消除与五年平均水平相比的小幅库存过剩。但是，由于预计 1 月底至 2 月初天气将更加温和，需求预计会有所缓解。此外，在周二冬季风暴导致电力问题迫使 Freeport LNG 出口工厂关闭后，该工厂的天然气流量将从 11 周来的低点回升。

US natural gas futures rose toward $3.9/MMBtu as frigid temperatures pushed demand to record highs. On Jan. 21st, the coldest day in at least five years, heating needs surged, driving spot gas and power prices to multi-year highs. Analysts expect energy firms to withdraw over 200 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage for two consecutive weeks, erasing a small surplus in inventories compared to the five-year average. However, demand may ease as forecasts predict milder weather from late January to early February. Meanwhile, a power issue caused by a rare Gulf Coast winter storm shut Freeport LNG’s Texas export plant, lowering LNG feedgas demand to a six-week low of 13.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd).

由于严寒天气推动需求创下历史新高，美国天然气期货价格上涨至 3.9 美元/百万英热单位。1 月 21 日是至少五年来最冷的一天，供暖需求激增，推动现货天然气和电力价格创下多年新高。分析师预计，能源公司将连续两周从库存中撤出超过 2000 亿立方英尺 (bcf) 的天然气，与五年平均水平相比，库存略有盈余。然而，由于预测 1 月底至 2 月初天气将更加温和，需求可能会有所缓解。与此同时，一场罕见的墨西哥湾沿岸冬季风暴导致电力问题，导致 Freeport LNG 的德克萨斯州出口工厂关闭，导致 LNG 原料气需求降至六周以来的最低水平 133 亿立方英尺/天 (bcfd)。

US stocks opened higher on Wednesday, extending the sharp gains from the week amid a batch of positive corporate news and earning results, while markets continued to assess the impact of policy pivots by President Trump. The S&P 500 was 0.6% higher to test its record level from November of last year, while the Nasdaq 100 jumped 1% and the Dow rose a softer 170 points. Netflix surged 12% after the company reported a record number of new subscribers and better-than-expected revenue and earnings. Also, Procter & Gamble added 2.5% and United Airlines gained almost 4% on strong results. Besides earnings, Oracle surged by 11% to mark a near 20% rise this week following news that formed a joint venture with SoftBank and OpenAI to benefit from a large-scale AI investment initiative. On the other hand, smaller caps were mostly lower as concerns of tariffs on China freshly signaled by Trump offset expected benefits from protectionist policies.

周三，美国股市高开，在一系列利好企业消息和业绩的推动下，延续了本周的大幅上涨势头，同时市场继续评估特朗普总统政策转变的影响。标准普尔 500 指数上涨 0.6%，测试去年 11 月以来的纪录水平，纳斯达克 100 指数上涨 1%，道琼斯指数上涨 170 点。Netflix 飙升 12%，此前该公司公布新用户数量创下纪录，收入和收益好于预期。此外，宝洁上涨 2.5%，联合航空上涨近 4%，得益于强劲的业绩。除了收益之外，甲骨文飙升 11%，本周涨幅接近 20%，此前有消息称，该公司与软银和 OpenAI 成立合资企业，以受益于大规模人工智能投资计划。另一方面，小型股大多走低，因为特朗普刚刚暗示将对中国征收关税的担忧抵消了保护主义政策带来的预期收益。

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